UPDATE 3/18/11: We have recovered from our hard drive failure and the ensembles are back up and running! Thanks for your patience!
BUFKIT WRF Ensemble Production
To support WDTB’s instructors and research associates participating in Vortex II, WDTB is producing BUFKIT ensemble forecast profiles:
1) Model: WRF EMS
2) Resolution: 24 KM
3) Frequency: 00Z and 12z
4) Ensemble Elements: There are 16 ensemble elements available. The elements vary by selecting different workstation WRF options.
For each cycle (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z) 8 model runs are performed using different options in the workstation WRF (Figure 1). To obtain 16 ensemble elements the 06Z and the 18Z runs are initialized off forecast hour 6 and combined with the 12Z and 00Z runs respectively to cover the same 48 hour forecast period.
Figure 1. WRF Ensemble Cluster Setup
The WRF Ensemble cluster is controlled by a Master Control Program (MCP) written in Python. This MCP has four main functions:
- Identify when initialization files (GFS, NAM) are available
- Serve as the central control point for all computers and associated model runs
- Take Bufkit output from individual models and create ensemble files
- Create GeoRSS feed and push files to webserver
By utilizing a GeoRSS feed users are able to quickly see when new data is available using any standard RSS reader. The geospatial aspect of the feed provides an easy mechanism to incorporate into maps and other applications. The GeoRSS feed can be found using the link above or by clicking on the RSS icon 
located in your browser.
Approximate Availability Times in CST (**New Updated 12/14/10):
| # of Elements |
12Z Ensemble (06Z and 12Z cycle) |
00Z Ensemble (18Z and 00Z cycle) |
|---|---|---|
| 2 |
4:00am |
4:00pm |
| 4 |
4:20am |
4:20pm |
| 6 |
5:50am |
5:50pm |
| 8 |
6:20am |
6:20pm |
| 10 |
10:00am |
10:00pm |
| 12 |
10:20am |
10:20am |
| 14 |
12:00pm | 12:00am |
| 16 |
12:20pm |
12:20am |
Questions
NWS staff can contact me via e-mail: 